John Marshall, the British ambassador to Luxembourg, said that there was no timetable for publishing the impact studies of Brexit on the British economy. LaLa La Photo

John Marshall, the British ambassador to Luxembourg, said that there was no timetable for publishing the impact studies of Brexit on the British economy. LaLa La Photo

He added that the British government “hoped” that the EU27 member states would find 1) that there had been sufficient progress on the financial settlement, citizens’ rights and the Irish border to enable talks on the second phase of negotiations, 2) that they should not just talk about the transition phase, but also agree on the main principles of such a transition period, and 3) that the EU would not close down any options, but would be ready to discuss a bespoke and special relationship.

At the last October European Council, it was found that negotiations had not yet progressed sufficiently.

In a meeting with the press on Thursday 23 November, Marshall explained that the structure of the negotiations had changed, and was less formal now.

Separation issues

On citizens’ rights, Marshall said the message from both sides was that they were very keen to reach an agreement, and that the British government was “hopeful.”

On Ireland, Marshall repeated that the border issue could not be dissociated from any future relationship, and therefore cannot be resolved entirely at the moment. He added that he didn’t think everything on that question had to be resolved.

“More will be on the table” for the financial settlement, Marshall said, but he wasn't sure whether that would be information, or some sort of reassurance which should enable the EU27 and the Commission to conclude that sufficient progress has been made on that issue. He hoped that the transition period will be agreed in the first quarter of 2018. This 2-year transition period should mean that “things continue as they are now”, with market access, ECJ jurisdiction, and paying into the EU budget. This is very much in line with what the European Commission said needed to happen.

Future partnership: no narrowing down of options

Marshall said this would not just cover economic issues, but also security, criminal justice, defence development and others. “We are keen to ensure that the guidelines from the European Council don’t narrow down options, and instead allow the maximum of flexibility. We are not interested in a Norway model, we’re not interested in having something identical to CETA. We’re interested in something more ambitious, which reflects the fact that the UK has this unique relationship with the EU27. So it’s got to be generous, bespoke, ambitious.”

Budget and no deal scenarios

In Wednesday’s budget presentation, chancellor Hammond announced that £3 bn would be set aside for Brexit preparations in general, but also in case the UK leaves without a deal. Marshall explained this was part of any contingency planning, but the money was not handed over to particular departments. “We will need to put in place arrangements for infrastructure, possibly, to implement whatever has been agreed.” The British government will need to put forward a new immigration act, or a customs bill that is currently before parliament. The British ambassador explained:

“What we will have on our borders will depend on what we agree in terms of market access. There are likely to be costs, which will vary depending on whether we have a very high degree of market access or more barriers in place.”

This money would be used to fund the costs of implementing the deal or the costs of implementing no deal, which “must remain an option, which is not our preferred option but it is a scenario and we have to prepare for that.”

Brexit impact studies: redacted?

The recent House of Commons vote to ask the government to release the impact studies of Brexit on the British economy on 1 November has not yet led to any publications of the studies.

Marshall explained that:

“The government has committed to publishing something, but I don’t know what the timescale of that will be. I think at one stage I had the impression that there were 54 documents per sector, a nice sort of neat report, but as I understand it, that is not the form in which they exist. The government is committed to publishing something that sets out information on these sectoral assessments. But you can be sure that the government will not publish any information which would be prejudicial to the negotiations.”

When asked whether parliament would get the unredacted papers, the British ambassador said that “they would either be redacted or documents that set out the outcomes of this more fluid process in a new document, in which case it would need to be redacted and prepared for that purpose.”

Not putting politics over prosperity

David Davis recently warned the EU not to put politics over prosperity. Some would argue that the British government puts politics over prosperity by choosing to leave the Single Market.

The British ambassador replied:

“The British public reached a decision on 23 June, and the government set out implementing that decision. The approach the government will be taking is to get the best possible deal on everything which is in the interests of the UK. Our view is that our interests are best served by leaving the Single Market, given that the EU has the clear and firm position that the four freedoms are indivisible, and that full access to the Single Market means full freedom of movement. As we have said, we want to leave the Single Market, we understand that you can’t expect to get the same benefits outside the Union as you get as a member. Notwithstanding that, we want to agree a relationship where there is as much trade in goods and services as possible, and that this trade should be as frictionless as possible. That is the ambition, and we’ll see in the negotiations which hopefully start in the new year, to what extent that is achievable.”