Hammond sent a letter to the treasury select committee outlining his view on what a no-deal Brexit would look like, which was not an encouraging read. In his communication to Nicky Morgan, chair of the treasury committee, he painted a bleak picture warning of large fiscal consequences resulting from a potential hit of 10.3% to the UK’s GDP. He also stated that government borrowing risks reaching £80 billion per year should the UK need to trade with the EU on the basis of WTO (World Trade Organisation) regulations. 

On the very same day that Hammond made his assessment (24 August 2018), Brexit secretary Dominic Raab published his first 25 technical notices on what to do in the event of a no-deal Brexit, although he did also state that he was confident a deal would be reached. As reported on Delano here, some of the details of the no-deal scenario make grim reading as well. 

Prior to both of these communications, Liam Fox, the UK’s international trade secretary, had told The Sunday Times that a no-deal scenario was the most likely outcome. 

According to Sky News on 28 August 2018,  Mrs May has accused Hammond of basing his assessment on out of date figures, “First of all, the chancellor was talking about a set of figures that I think came out in January,” she said, adding, “I think when they came out I was very clear on a previous trip that those figures were a work in progress at that particular time."

She then went on to address the prospects of the UK trading with the EU under WTO regulations saying it "would not be a walk in the park" but that "it would not be the end of the world", and repeated that, “…as I have said from the beginning, no deal is better than a bad deal.” 

So, according to the British cabinet recently, no deal is better than a bad deal, working under WTO rules will not be the end of the world and would increase government borrowing to around £80 billion, they are confident of achieving a deal and have published technical papers outlining a no-deal scenario and the international trade secretary believes a no-deal outcome is most likely. Also, apparently, the UK has a chancellor who uses out of date figures in is work.