Thucydides, a Greek historian, had studied the causes of the Peloponnesian War. He concluded that it was the threat of a growing power that inevitably drove the dominant nation to war.
History is full of examples of Thucydides’s Traps. Over the past 500 years, Graham Allison, an American researcher in political science and a professor at Harvard, has identified 16 occurrences. Of these 16 cases, 12 resulted in a war between the dominant power and the power that threatened it. The latest example of armed conflict is the war between the United States and Japan in the middle of the last century. The expansion of Japanese influence in the early 20th century in the Pacific threatened US policy in the region. Following the US decision to impose an embargo on imports of Japanese raw materials, the Japanese attacked the US naval base at Pearl Harbor in 1941, plunging the Americans into World War II.
On the other hand, several cases in recent history have not given rise to armed conflict. The author distinguishes 4 of the 16 episodes. The Cold War is a case in point. After World War II, the US had become the undisputed power of the world. Its economy was half the world’s economy, they had military supremacy and the nuclear bomb. American hegemony was threatened by the Soviets, their ally during World War II. The Cold War was one of the major historical instances in which Thucydides’s Trap was avoided.
Today, the rise of China threatens US supremacy on the economic, military and technological front. China has so far remained distant and half-hearted on international geopolitical matters that concern it less directly, such as Syria and Iran. However, when its interests were at risk, China has been generally more convincing, as, for example, in the China Sea.
The New Silk Road
The most telling example of the extent of Chinese influence in the world is the development of the New Silk Road, which stretches from China to Europe, passing through Central Asia and eastern Africa. China is trying to forge economic and political links in more than 60 countries that have joined the project, which represent about two-thirds of the world population, through investments in infrastructure (ports, highways, railways, airports, energy network , internet network, etc.).
Disputes, whether of a commercial, technological or geopolitical nature, are more and more frequent and worrying. The disputed islands in the South China Sea have been the subject of tension for many years between China and America’s allies (Vietnam, Philippines and Japan). The trade dispute between the two powers, which began in the spring of 2018, has caused long-term damage to the global economy. US denunciations of the persecution of the Uyghur Muslim minority in northwest China are also a source of friction between the two countries. More recently, the Americans have increased restrictions on the export of certain sensitive technology goods to China. For example, the Chinese telecommunications equipment company Huawei could encounter existential problems in its production if the United States restricts access to certain American electronic components. And moreover, the US president recently announced that US companies will be forced to sever ties with the WeChat app (owned by Tencent) and TikTok.
The close economic ties between China and the rest of the world, as well as the damage that a war between these two powers would cause, make a military conflict very unlikely. However, the strategic and economic stakes for the US of the rise of China are gigantic. The Trump administration marked an important turning point in US policy toward China. China is now an economic adversary rather than a partner, and steps are being taken by the Americans to curb Chinese ambitions that run counter to their interests. And this negative American view of China is unlikely to change drastically over the next few years depending on the future US president: it is shared by the majority of Americans, whether Democrats or Republicans.
While a direct armed conflict between China and the United States would confirm Thucydides’s theory, this possibility remains unlikely. But the next few years could look like a cold war between the two economic rivals, similar to that of the second half of the 20th century between the West and the Soviet empire. Trade and relationship disputes between the US and China are not going to go away any time soon. The relationship between these two countries is expected to continue to deteriorate in the long run as Chinese economic interests compete with those of the US, which is inevitable.