The agency modelled two scenarios: an ‘upside’ (with the virus more or less under control, meaning lighter societal restrictions) and a ‘downside’ (with the pandemic worsening).
Statec expects GDP will shrink by between 5.1% and 6.3% in 2020, compared to 2019 (see graphic below). That is an improvement on the -6% to -12% estimate out earlier this year.
Inflation will likely remain below the threshold that sparks “indexation” (automatic rises in wages and pension payments), unless, “something bigger happens with the oil price”, said Ferdy Adam, head of the economic forecasting and modelling division at Statec.
On current course, the public debt pile will shrink (or disappear under the most ideal conditions) in 2021.
There will be new jobs created, although at a slower pace than before, helped by hiring in the public sector and in what Adam labels “non-market services”, such as hospitals and social care agencies. And also somewhat in the financial sector, whose hiring is “decelerating, growing less strongly, but not negatively”.