“If central banks reduce rates in 2023, we may see a cautious recovery,” she said. In the meantime, a short-term price adjustment is inevitable. “We have seen discounts already,” said Ramponi. “Now, with limited visibility on exit prices, interest rates and other discounted cash flow parametres, investment managers are limiting new acquisitions and focusing on portfolio review.”
In the short term, Ramponi expects distressed sales from actors in need of liquidity. She also points out that institutional investor portfolio exposure to real estate is mechanically increasing as the value of global equity markets fall, prompting a re-examination of their strategic asset allocation and further sales.
Yet some asset classes are more resilient than others. “Industrial assets have consistently outperformed--particularly, logistics assets fared well with the covid-19 online shopping boost.”
Ramponi also cites the “green premium” for portfolios that comply with decarbonisation: “Investment managers who have embedded more ESG or tech credentials will protect their margins and profitability.”
This article first appeared in the Forecast 2023 issue of Delano magazine.