Chengdu, Sichuan, China, 6 January 2019: China Post automates a big part of its delivery services in a warehouse in Chengdu, China. Photo: Shutterstock

Chengdu, Sichuan, China, 6 January 2019: China Post automates a big part of its delivery services in a warehouse in Chengdu, China. Photo: Shutterstock

On 2 May 2025, the United States will end its duty-free allowance on parcels under $800. Europe, which received 4.6bn items in the <€150 category last year (about 145 per second), is therefore preparing for a tsunami of packages, mostly from China.

In 2028--or three years after the United States does something similar--Europe will abolish the exemption from customs duty on parcels worth less than €150 entering European territory. This will affect a lot of parcels: last year there were 4.6bn of them, or about 145 arriving every second, though that figure is twice as high as in 2023 and three times as high as in 2022. More than nine out of ten of these parcels originate from China, where the main logistics centres of online retail giants such as Shein, Temu and AliExpress are located. Above that amount, 12% of their value must be paid in tax.

Damages are piling up and causing major losses for several industrial sectors: the clothing industry is recording almost €12bn in lost sales per year (or 5.2% of its turnover), the cosmetics industry €3bn (4.8% of sales) and the toy industry €1bn (8.7% of sales). According to the European Union’s impact analysis, when an SME is a victim of counterfeiting or piracy, for example, it is 34% less likely to survive than SMEs that have not been confronted with intellectual property infringements.

On Tuesday, without waiting for Europe, France announced a “rapid introduction, at the European level, of a management fee mechanism on each small parcel entering Europe” to fund controls, according to public accounts minister Amélie de Montchalin, referring to “a few euros” per parcel.

Among the online sales platforms, Shein and Temu have established themselves in just a few years as e-commerce heavyweights in France and Europe, where they have 75m users. Shein, originally Chinese but now based in Singapore, specialises in ultra-trendy, low-cost fashion, while Temu (launched by the Pinduoduo group) sells a wide range of products, from textiles to toys to high-tech gadgets, at low prices. Between them, and alongside Amazon, Shein and Temu account for around a quarter of online fashion sales in France.

As proof of their breakthrough, almost one in four parcels handled by La Poste in France now comes from Shein or Temu (five times more than five years ago). A staggering 70% of French people over the age of 15 say they have bought at least one item on one of these platforms in the last 12 months. And according to research firm Circana, it was on Shein and Temu that French consumers increased their spending the most in 2024, illustrating the quest for low prices against a backdrop of constrained purchasing power.

Towards the end of customs exemption in 2028 in Europe

The French proposal is part of a wider development of the European customs framework. In May 2023, the European Commission launched a far-reaching reform of the Customs Union described as the most ambitious since its creation in 1968. One of the flagship provisions of this reform is precisely the abolition of duty-free access for parcels under €150, currently scheduled for 2030 at the latest in the initial project (France mentions 2028 as a target). Since 2010, the European Union has exempted low-value consignments from customs duties in order to facilitate the flow of trade. But this derogation system is considered obsolete and harmful in view of the colossal volumes now involved.

In February 2024, the commission officially proposed to abolish this duty-free allowance on small consignments, putting forward several justifications: the fight against the entry of dangerous products or products that do not comply with European standards, the need to restore tax fairness between local trade and imports, and consideration of the environmental impact of these billions of parcels transported over long distances.

Some 65% of low-value packages arriving to Europe are currently undervalued to avoid import duties, according to the European Commission--a significant loss of revenue for governments. Putting an end to duty exemption from the first euro imported would therefore make it possible to curb abuses and better tax flows without unduly penalising local businesses.

Several voices in Brussels are calling for the implementation of this measure to be speeded up, without waiting until 2028 or 2030. Some suggest dissociating the end of the €150 allowance from the rest of the major customs reform to apply it earlier, although the legal manoeuvre is complex.

Similar initiatives abroad, notably in the United States

France is not alone in seeking ways to deal with the tidal wave of small parcels from China. In the United States, the authorities have launched an unprecedented regulatory crackdown on this issue. Traditionally, residents of the United States have enjoyed a very high exemption threshold: any import worth less than $800 could enter the country without customs duties or complex procedures, under the so-called “de minimis” rule. This system greatly benefited Chinese e-tailers, who sent small quantities of goods directly to American consumers to avoid taxes and customs duties. Shein, Temu and AliExpress built part of their success in the United States on this model of split shipments.

Now, this loophole is being closed. On 2 April 2025, US president Donald Trump signed an executive order abolishing the duty-free allowance for parcels originating in China and Hong Kong. From 2 May 2025, no package from these countries, regardless of value, will be exempt from import duty on US soil. Officially, this shock measure was presented as a means of combating the illegal entry of synthetic opioids (such as fentanyl), which are often sent through the mail. Above all, however, it dealt a severe blow to the business model of Shein, Temu and AliExpress, which until then had seen the United States as their primary market. At the same time, Washington has drastically increased customs duties on Chinese products: surcharges have been raised from 30% to 90% on small packages from China. In other words, the American gateway is closing sharply for low-cost parcels.

As a direct consequence, Chinese platforms are likely to redouble their efforts on the European market, where regulations are still considered to be more lenient. “There’s no doubt about it, there’s going to be an invasion from the Indo-Pacific region,” says Michel-Édouard Leclerc, head of the distribution group that shares his surname, anticipating a massive transfer of flows to Europe in the face of the closure of the American market. The European trade commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, spoke as early as February 2025 of the risk of a veritable “tsunami” of small parcels flooding the Old Continent if no measures were taken. In fact, the European Union has set up a surveillance task force to detect any suspicious explosion in imports of this type and is ready to activate trade safeguard clauses if necessary.

Product compliance in question

Alongside tax and customs measures, the authorities are keeping a close eye on the practices of Shein, Temu and their ilk in terms of product regulation and consumer safety. The European Commission has opened investigations into these two flagship Chinese e-commerce platforms. Shein is being investigated by Brussels on suspicion of allowing items to be sold that do not comply with European standards (whether in terms of product safety, intellectual property or regulatory compliance).

Temu, for its part, has been in the Commission's sights since last October for similar reasons, linked to placing potentially non-compliant products on the European market.

These investigations are part of the EU’s drive to make platforms accountable for the products they distribute, an issue reinforced by the entry into force of the Digital Services Act and other recent legislation on the surveillance of online markets. The results of these investigations are not yet known, but they demonstrate the increased vigilance of regulators with regard to these new players.

This article in French.