This is no longer the story of Europe at a crossroads. It is the story of Europe at the wheel.
The unveiling of the and Readiness 2030 in March marked the most significant departure from Europe’s post-war defence posture in living memory. With up to €800bn mobilised through the Stability Pact’s escape clause and the Safe mechanism, Europe is doing something many believed it no longer could: backing words with weight.
A 38% rise in joint procurement, €215bn directed towards infrastructure resilience and plans to boost defence innovation through dedicated financing mechanisms are not adjustments. They represent a strategic redirection. The April Warsaw Declaration, endorsed by 24 member states, codified this intent with common threat protocols and coordinated readiness measures. For a continent long divided by defence doctrine, this is a rare convergence.
This is not the birth of a European army, nor should it be. Europe’s strength lies not in uniformity, but in coordinated resilience. Autonomy and alliance can, and must, coexist. This is something more flexible, more intelligent--a framework for collective deterrence among sovereign democracies. Not as a counter to Nato, but as a complement to it. The inclusion of Ukraine and EFTA partners is not a bureaucratic footnote. It is a geopolitical signal. Europe’s border is no longer a line on a map. It is a community of shared risk and shared resolve.
There was a time when strategic autonomy felt like an academic slogan. That time has passed. We are not there yet, but we are walking in its direction.
Economic caution, not complacency
On the economic front, the figures offer modest encouragement. A 0.4% eurozone GDP rise in the first quarter, inflation stabilised at 2.2%, and a measured all suggest that the policy levers are working. Slowly, but discernibly. Yet one must resist the temptation to interpret calm as strength. Growth remains uneven, investment hesitant, and consumption constrained by wage dislocation and geopolitical unease.
The divergence between northern and southern economies is widening. Germany’s industrial performance remains subdued despite a brief rebound in March, contrasting with stronger output from Spain and Portugal. Inversion of the familiar narrative demands more than commentary. It calls for recalibration.
What is needed now is not a return to indiscriminate stimulus, but a new generation of investment policy.
What is needed now is not a return to indiscriminate stimulus, but a new generation of investment policy. One that aligns capital with strategy, and patience with ambition. That could mean expanding the mandate of the European Investment Bank to allow targeted equity in sectors such as semiconductors, quantum computing and advanced materials. Or enabling new sovereign investment vehicles capable of pooling Europe’s scale into global relevance. Public investment tools--whether through the EIB or complementary structures--must meet the challenge of deep industrial transformation.
We are not adjusting the margins of the system. We are being called to reimagine its foundation.
A political centre holding by its fingertips
Recent elections in Europe have underscored a truth we ignore at our peril. Whilst institutions may be slow to change, electorates are not. The surge in support for parties once considered marginal is not a footnote. It is a symptom of something deeper. A disaffection with abstraction, with complexity, with a politics that too often speaks of values but delivers little that feels valuable.
Youth voter participation continues to lag, with estimates suggesting turnout among under-thirty voters remains well below the general average. Traditional parties now struggle to secure majority confidence, with recent elections showing historic lows in combined support.
The post-election efforts to form broad governing coalitions are gestures to the centre, and they deserve cautious support. But consensus must not become camouflage. If the centre wishes to hold, it must renew itself not with slogans, but with solutions. On migration. On security. On cost of living.
The European Commission’s recent Transparency and Delivery Initiative is a welcome first step. But institutional reform must be matched by narrative clarity. Europeans must see themselves not as beneficiaries of bureaucracy, but as builders of a shared future.
Democracy is not self-correcting. It demands stewardship.
The quiet race for technological relevance
Too often, Europe is seen as a rule-maker in search of a game. But the , followed by fresh capital commitments to deep tech ecosystems, suggests something more substantial. A growing awareness that regulation without innovation is impotence with polish.
Europe’s share of global AI patents sits at 7%. In quantum computing research, the figure is 12%. These must double by 2030 if strategic autonomy is to mean more than rhetoric. The recently announced European Technology Institutes in Dresden, Milan and Helsinki are a step towards that goal-modelled on ecosystems that do not merely incubate innovation, but industrialise it.
Quantum computing, biotechnology, advanced materials and secure communications are not distant frontiers. They are the battlegrounds of the next geopolitical cycle. Europe must move from being a referee to becoming a contender. The race is not to be first, but to be indispensable.
Digital sovereignty must be reframed not as protectionism, but as strategic participation in the technologies that will shape both markets and morals.
Luxembourg: from agility to agency
In the midst of these continental currents, Luxembourg’s role must evolve from agility to agency. Our small size has long allowed us to adapt quickly, to pilot innovation and to navigate complexity with precision. But in the new European context--shaped by shared procurement, strategic convergence and fiscal scrutiny--adaptation is not enough. We must help set direction.
Our financial centre remains a strength, but not a guarantee. With over a quarter of national GDP linked to financial services, we must broaden the base. The Luxembourg Future Fund’s renewed focus on deep tech and sustainable finance is a welcome step. But capital alone is insufficient. We need institutional imagination: a regulatory environment that rewards responsibility and risk in equal measure, and an education system aligned to the industries of tomorrow.
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Luxembourg supports the capital markets union as a necessary step towards a more integrated and resilient European economy. Our financial ecosystem is already deeply embedded in cross-border activity, and we understand both the opportunities and the risks that come with deeper integration. But support must not imply surrender. The next phase should enhance connectivity without compromising the diversity of national frameworks that give Europe its competitive edge. Harmonisation must serve investment, not dilute accountability.
At the same time, fiscal sustainability must return to the centre of public discourse. Current projections suggest that, without reform, pension obligations may reach 18% of GDP by 2040--a level that invites serious reflection. We need a public conversation that is both honest and constructive, one that protects the intergenerational contract without forfeiting our long-term competitiveness.
The question is not whether we are able. It is whether we are willing to lead, and ambitious enough to try.
Luxembourg’s contribution to Europe is not symbolic. It is structural. In cross-border innovation, sustainable finance, and digital trust, we remain a proving ground--where ideas are tested and made real. But that requires political will as much as technical capacity. The question is not whether we are able. It is whether we are willing to lead, and ambitious enough to try.
In an age where scale often breeds delay, our smallness remains an asset. But only through clarity, reform, and courage does it become a strength.
A transatlantic relationship reconsidered
Europe’s ability to act also depends on clarity in its partnerships. The transatlantic relationship remains indispensable, but it can no longer be assumed. The shifting priorities of successive American administrations have made one thing plain: Europe must be prepared to carry more of its own weight.
Strategic autonomy is not a substitute for alliance. It is the price of parity within it. If we want to remain partners, we must first become peers.
Strategic autonomy is not a speech. It is a budget, a factory, a contract signed in good faith and delivered on time.
That means bringing capabilities, not just concerns, to the table. From cybersecurity to critical infrastructure, from semiconductor cooperation to joint research in advanced materials, Europe must invest at scale. And where access is mutual, trust can be built. Reciprocity will define the relevance of this relationship in the decade to come.
The time for motion is not the time to drift
Europe has shown that it can move. The next question is whether it can endure. Because the great danger is not regression, but fatigue. Not failure, but forgetting why we began to act in the first place.
Strategic autonomy is not a speech. It is a budget, a factory, a contract signed in good faith and delivered on time. Competitiveness is not a slogan. It is regulatory clarity, labour market participation and excellence in execution. Unity is not a flag. It is compromise made with discipline, not just sentiment.
The forthcoming European Defence Industrial Strategy, and the decisions around the next multiannual financial framework, will not only test our ambition but our coherence.
The era of promises must give way to the time of results. The world is watching.
We, citizens, too.
And in the end, the measure of our success will not be whether we remained true to old declarations, but whether we proved capable of choosing purpose over passivity, and action over abstraction, when it mattered most.
* is CEO and managing partner at Deloitte Luxembourg.