Industrialisation, globalisation, agricultural innovations and faster lifestyles: agriculture and the way we eat have changed considerably since the turn of the century. The days of traditional farming, with little mechanisation and no chemical inputs, are long gone.

Among the turning points in the history of food, the years 1920-1930 and the scientific advances and innovations that emerged at that time paved the way for the use of chemical inputs, in particular insecticides, but also fertilisers and pesticides. Little by little, agriculture also adopted mechanisation. It accelerated even further in the following decade in order to combat the shortage of farm labour in wartime. In 1945, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) was created, as the world became increasingly aware of the issues surrounding food.

A few years later, the creation of another organisation contributed to a major turning point: the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 1962, which introduced a subsidy mechanism to encourage agricultural production and promote the modernisation of farming and the stabilisation of farmers’ incomes. But in reality, it was mainly the large farms that benefited, to the detriment of small farmers, far from the logic of overproduction. Over time, this led to structural changes in agriculture, with a decline in the number of farms in favour of more massive, mechanised structures.

This period, known as the “green revolution,” saw a sharp rise in productivity, following the same trend as demographic change. High-yielding plants were introduced, along with fertilisers and other chemical inputs to maximise production and reduce losses.

Today...

Globalisation has also contributed to the spread of the model we know today, with diversification of the food supply, seasonal variations and an acceleration in trade. Eating habits have also evolved and become more homogenised, particularly the Western model based on processed products. Overall, consumption of products to takeaway and eat at home has increased. In Luxembourg, for example, spending on takeaway products was €5,419 in 2019 and €6,726 in 2023, according to data from the national statistics bureau Statec.

Today, however, there are too many constraints on this model: agriculture is being disrupted by climate change, and despite the importance of food production, farmers’ incomes are around 40% lower than non-agricultural incomes in Europe.

On a global scale, the FAO reports that agriculture accounted for 23% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, or almost 12 GT CO2 equivalent per year. Livestock farming, in particular, is one of the main sources of emissions, accounting for up to 14.5% of global GHG emissions, with direct impacts such as the production of methane by ruminants (a topic we will cover in a third episode). Again according to the FAO, soils--which contain around 25% of the world’s biodiversity--are also a crucial carbon reservoir. But soil degradation releases carbon into the atmosphere, and soil erosion could lead to the loss of 10% of the world’s agricultural production by 2050, with an estimated loss of 75 billion tonnes of soil, while at the same time increasing urbanisation is reducing the proportion of land available for agriculture.

Luxembourg is no exception to this trend. According to the director of the Chamber of Agriculture, Paul Marceul, “the agricultural sector is under a whole range of pressures, in a context that is already difficult for everyone. Farmers, too, are suffering from the general and galloping increase in costs. They have no control over their prices, which are often linked to international rates, and they have to compete with producer countries that have lower production standards and costs.” Not to mention the proliferation of standards and regulations. In his view, there will be many challenges facing agriculture in the future, and farmers are expecting “an amplification of current problems,” in particular climate change and the evolution of crops.

At the same time, consumer trends are changing, and there is a growing awareness among consumers of the need to eat more sensibly. “When we surveyed the population of Luxembourg and the Greater Region three years apart, we saw a growing preoccupation with the notion of regionality. Seasonality is associated with this,” says University of Luxembourg researcher Rachel Reckinger in a publication.

So the food of the future will no longer be what it is today. It will have to change to meet all these challenges, to which we can add new ones such as the demographic outlook. The FAO points out that the stakes are high: between 2012 and 2050, the population is set to increase by 50%, so demand for food is likely to follow the same trend. A world population of 9.7 billion mouths to feed in 2050 obviously poses challenges in terms of resource management.

... and tomorrow

As part of the European SecureFood project, a study entitled “The Future of Food” by food scientist Charis M. Galanakis provides an overview of where the current food system could be heading in the future. According to Galanakis, given the constraints detailed above, the solution will lie “in optimising production, by improving land yields, without inputs, but rather by generalising new practices such as agroecology or the blue bioeconomy.”

It will no longer be just a question of producing sufficient quantities, but of “improving the efficiency of food systems. Achieving sustainability is a complex undertaking that requires changes in consumption patterns and a reconsideration of agricultural practices, such as reduced tillage, organic farming, drip irrigation, biofertilisers, crop rotation and agroforestry,” he explains in his study. The challenge will be to feed a growing population. According to SOS Faim, famine currently affects 828 million people worldwide, or 10% of the world’s population.

A paradigm shift is needed on the part of both consumers and farmers. In a study carried out by Ilres on the farming and food sector, farmers are already highlighting a number of trends for the future.

On the consumer side too, new trends are already emerging that could make it easier to achieve our objectives, such as flexitarianism, which consists of reducing meat consumption. Decreasing meat consumption, particularly red meat, not only reduces greenhouse gas emissions, but also reduces pressure on water resources and farmland.

Another challenge will be to relocate production. But this is not so easy, according to a study published as part of the Interreg Aroma project, on the scale of the Greater region. Researcher Rachel Reckinger uses the catering industry as an example. In this sector, she points to a number of obstacles to the relocation of production, not linked to production being too low, but rather to “unsuitable organisation of supply chains and a lack of structuring of supply chains.” This poses logistical challenges. However, she points to levers such as pooling and public support via cross-border bodies, for example.

The boom in plant-based foods will also be a major trend in the years ahead. These are often products that mimic the texture and taste of meat, while having a much smaller ecological footprint. According to the Fondation pour la nature et l’homme, producing plant-based meat requires up to 90% less land and water and produces 89% fewer greenhouse gases than conventional meat. Other foods that may be on our plates in a few years’ time are insects and algae, which are “interesting sources of protein for the future because of their low environmental impact. Insects, for example, are rich in protein and require very little water and land to produce.”

Laboratory-grown meat could also be an emerging trend. “This process consists of producing real meat from animal cells, without breeding. This would reduce deforestation and the GHG emissions associated with factory farming. Although this technology is still in its infancy, it could revolutionise the way meat is produced,” says a study by France’s ministry of ecological transition.

In the series “2080: No(s) futur(s),” released on the Canal+ platform at the end of 2023, scientists project themselves into 2080 and try to show what the world will look like in that year. One of the four episodes focuses on food. According to the experts featured in this documentary, it is clear that “a food revolution is on the horizon.” In their view, livestock farming could disappear, to be replaced by protein factories made from microbes. “Or, on the contrary, our salvation could come from what we already know, such as organic farming but in the open ground, managed by AI.”

New agricultural models, combined with new technologies, should therefore emerge in the future, such as urban agriculture, given the high urbanisation of spaces, or aquaponics, a method of growing fish and plants in the same system. Industry 4.0 applications such as AI and the Internet of Things (IOT) could also help to transform production and make it more optimal, by, for example, facilitating monitoring, generalising precision forecasting and rationalising storage. Tools such as digital twins will also enable farmers to simulate scenarios.

Finally, as well as new technologies and advances in agriculture, the past can also offer interesting avenues for the future, not least because of the sustainable practices and simpler, more natural diets that marked earlier civilisations. Farming practices of yesteryear placed greater emphasis on crop rotation, which is of particular benefit in terms of soil conservation. Going back to eating local, seasonal food, as in the past, would also reduce the need for transport, and therefore the carbon footprint of our food. Like the reduction in ultra-processed foods, this return to more sensible consumption is also in the interests of consumer health.

So it’s not a question of returning entirely to the practices of the past, but rather of drawing inspiration from them to combine modern innovations with approaches that have proved their worth in terms of sustainability and health. The agriculture and food of the future could benefit from these lessons, seeking a balance between technology and tradition.

This article was originally published in .