Discussions on the future of Ukraine are ongoing as I write.

With or without Ukrainian president Zelenskyy’s involvement, I would expect a demilitarized zone (DMZ) to be drawn along the current front line meaning that Crimea will remain Russian. A zone that is probably full of mines. Putin would probably prefer a larger buffer zone, such as having neutral countries between Russia and Nato countries. It may have to compromise for a DMZ.

This solution may enable Ukraine to enter Nato. What’s in it for the US and Trump, the dealmaker, in exchange for a Nato umbrella?

Easy access to Ukrainian minerals, while the energy to extract them may well come from Russian pipelines turned on again through Ukraine. Under a gradual timeline starting with natural gas, US sanctions on Russia would therefore be lifted--much sooner than anyone may have expected--should the Russians stick to their commitments in a peace deal.

Europeans may have also access to the minerals. Yet I suspect that their roles will be primarily focused on financing and rebuilding the remaining 80% of Ukraine. For Europeans, lifting sanctions against Russia will be a protracted affair.

Such a scenario may extend the life of Nato, which will clearly become an exclusive club with a high entry fee. It remains to be seen what will happen to the Nato countries not paying their annual membership fee (annual defence spending of 2% of GDP).

Putin and his clique will not be indefinitely in power. I could imagine eastern Ukraine--if the population wants it--returning to Ukraine during our lifetime, perhaps in 15 to 20 years under a future, less hawkish, Russian government as it is unlikely that Russians will move en masse to the new ‘Russian provinces.’