On 28 March 2023, Luxembourg Stratégie, the directorate within the economy ministry led by Franz Fayot (LSAP), will present a strategic vision for Luxembourg’s economy in 2050. For this, it wants to collect the thoughts of anyone above the age of 16 who is somehow impacted by the grand duchy’s economy. The campaign runs until 16 January 2023.
The survey consists of 19 questions and according to the website takes about 20 minutes to take. To understand the questions, count a few more minutes to read up on the three scenarios that are at the heart of the campaign.
Stagnant, green or grey?
Back in October, Luxembourg Stratégie presented three potential paths the country might take in the next 27 years.
The first one, the scenario of the “socio-economic sleepwalker”, is, as the name suggests, the path of complacency in the face of societal and ecological challenges. Here, the grand duchy has 1.1 million inhabitants in 2050. Little has been done to address issues like mobility, housing, workforce shortages. Failure to attract or train the skills necessary for a green and digital transition, increasing administrative pressure and continuously climbing prices exacerbate income and wealth inequalities. On a global level, the EU and world fail to meet Paris Agreement targets--the strain on insurance companies is important, as little has been invested in climate change mitigation.
The second one, the “bio-regional circularity” scenario, sees minimal a growth in population, reaching 770,000 in 2050. This, coupled with stalling economic growth, takes pressure off traffic, housing, health and education systems and national resources. A “profound transformation of the system” leads to a smaller income gap, a dark green financial sector and technology and digitalisation at the service of life. The workforce is trained to combine different activities, therefore making up for existing talent shortages. EU green targets are respected, and the union stands as a world leader in the ecological transition.
The third scenario, of “techno-digital optimism”, envisions a population of 1.2 million in Luxembourg, with very precarious housing and labour markets. A push for quantitative growth offers some balance of pension and social security funds, but workers are pushed out of the country by excessive living costs. Education and work markets are fully digitalised. This scenario features a European Union weakened by populism as globalisation continues to govern international relations and creates fierce competition for resources. Geo-engineering and grey infrastructure are used to deal with climate change but without universal and representative governance, some countries or wealthy individuals cause irreversible harm to countries and populations. The 2ºC limit of global warming is exceeded.
Available in French, English, German and Luxembourgish, the survey asks participants to explain what path Luxembourg is likely to walk towards and what challenges and opportunities they foresee. One question also asks participants what they would do if the country ended up in one of the scenarios described.
The results will be collected and used to feed a resilient strategic vision to be adopted regardless of the future the country will face. This strategy will be discussed by Fayot during a public debate on 16 January. A finalised version of the strategic vision and scenarios will be revealed on 28 March 2023.
To participate to the survey and for more information regarding the three scenarios, you can click here.