Expectations are high for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), which will bring together world leaders in Glasgow from 31 October to 12 November. In order to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, namely to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the EU is aiming for a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050. Does this seem feasible to you?
Lucien Hoffmann - Carbon neutrality refers to the balance between greenhouse gas emissions of human origin--hydrocarbons account for about 80% of the energy we consume--and their absorption by natural carbon sinks (soils, oceans) or technological sinks--capture and sequestration of CO2--on a global scale. However, the biosphere's capacity to absorb our emissions is limited: we are witnessing significant deforestation of tropical forests; in addition, forests are suffering from global warming and the oceans are becoming more acidic and warmer--two effects that reduce their absorption capacity.
As for technological solutions, they are anecdotal at best--in 2020, the 26 CO2 capture facilities installed worldwide captured 40 million tonnes of CO2, less than one thousandth of global emissions. A large-scale capture and sequestration infrastructure--over a billion tonnes per year--would be equivalent to the entire infrastructure of the oil industry today.
So the top priority remains reducing our emissions?
Yes, and the order of magnitude is about 5% per year, every year, until 2050. This figure is roughly the global reduction experienced between 2019 and 2020 due to the pandemic and containment. This reduction should therefore be maintained perpetually every year. Unfortunately, 2021 is becoming a record year in terms of rebound because of the economic recovery. The target is still technically feasible, but it requires a radical change in the economy, governance and behaviour.
To reach its target of a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions nationwide by 2030, the government set sectoral targets last July. Transport is by far the most important emission factor in Luxembourg (61% in 2020). The reduction is already well underway. Is the goal of reducing emissions by 57% by 2030 within reach?
Not really, no. It all depends on the speed of the transformation of the car fleet and therefore on subsidies, but also on constraints--for example, more and more cities are banning diesel cars. If you look at the figures for e-mobility, which are rising sharply, it has taken off. That said, the number of cars per person in Luxembourg is much higher than in any other country. Public transport must also be improved: Luxembourg is still an essentially rural country and small villages are not sufficiently served.
While the year 2020 has seen the largest increase in the installation of wind and PV plants in the world, further increasing the share of renewables in the grid poses some challenges.
Because of the pollution caused by the production and recycling of batteries, don't electric cars pose as many problems as they solve?
The electric car reduces the greenhouse gas emissions of a trip compared to a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle, even when charged with fossil fuel electricity, because its drive train is three times more efficient at converting energy into motion. But it carries a battery weighing several hundred kilograms, composed of lithium, nickel, manganese and cobalt, or iron and phosphate, depending on the technology. These materials, unlike oil, gas or coal, are not dissipated during use: they can be recovered from used batteries. But the demand for recycling must reach a sufficiently critical mass to start a large-scale industry.
Would the electricity grid be able to absorb, in a hypothetical case, a fully electrified car fleet?
In the opinion of Creos (the electricity and natural gas network manager), it could not today support the simultaneous recharging of the national vehicle fleet if it were electrified. There are two main avenues: controlling recharging by developing smart grids, which would modulate demand so that it does not reach the network's capacity. And strengthening the network itself, especially the interconnections, in order to accept more power in the lines.
Buildings are also a major contributor to emissions--the second largest in the country, accounting for 20% of emissions in 2020.
A lot of work needs to be done. When you see big projects like Belval or the Cloche d'Or, it's rarely good. Cities must plan a combined effort on the existing building stock and on new constructions.
In what way?
The existing building stock must be renovated to improve its energy efficiency and make the transition to renewable energy sources. And new buildings must have almost zero energy consumption--which is the case in Luxembourg since, since 2017, new residential buildings must be NZEB (Nearly Zero Energy Building).
Industry, which accounts for 6.2% of emissions, must also make the transition. Fedil has recently made a number of requests to the government to facilitate the transition. Is industry on the right track?
In Luxembourg, these are major contributors in terms of emissions, but industry is on the right track. ArcelorMittal is moving towards green steel, and major emitters like Cimalux are trying to find solutions. Awareness is important at their level.
The decarbonisation of industry and transport depends essentially on their transition to clean electricity. Are technologies such as wind power or photovoltaics realistic for replacing fossil fuels?
While the year 2020 has seen the largest increase in the installation of wind and PV plants in the world, further increasing the share of renewables in the grid poses some challenges. This is because production must meet demand at all times, which is a difficult equation to solve when sources are weather dependent.
The absence of wind or the presence of clouds can leave the grid without solar and wind power for hours or even days. For countries lucky enough to have hydroelectric power plants, this is not a problem. For the others, a long-term storage solution must be found and deployed rapidly over the next few years, a sine qua non for abandoning fossil fuels.
There is no grid in the world today that depends solely on solar and wind power. There are '100% renewable' scenarios. But the lessons of these scenarios are quite similar: final electricity demand must absolutely decrease, the grid must be completely renovated, whether in terms of storage or line reinforcement, and costs and social acceptability must be controlled.
From a health point of view, heat waves have the greatest impact, leading to an increase in premature deaths. And the combination of heat waves and increased humidity levels is threatening.
Which storage solutions are good prospects for the future?
It's mainly batteries. With electric vehicles, there's been a big push in recent years. And a lot of effort has been made to increase their efficiency or reduce their weight. But batteries are not able to store enough or long enough at the moment. A lot of research is being done to optimise storage. This should go quickly: we can expect solutions within 10 or 20 years. There is also the possibility of storing the electricity produced in another form, for example in the form of hydrogen.
The Minister for Energy, Claude Turmes (dei Gréng), presented Luxembourg's hydrogen strategy at the end of September. Is it an environmentally sustainable energy?
Today, 96% of hydrogen is produced from fossil resources, half of which is produced by steam reforming of natural gas--so-called 'grey' hydrogen (the methane molecule, the main component of natural gas, which has four hydrogen atoms, is broken down with steam at high temperature to produce hydrogen, editor's note). This is a carbon-intensive process, with about 10 kilos of CO2 per kilo of hydrogen. The other half is produced by partial oxidation of oil or gasification of coal.
Only 4% comes from electrolysis, the only potentially clean process. But this process still needs to be supplied with low-carbon electricity. It is this last process, which consists of breaking up water molecules, that is currently described as 'green' and on which many hopes are based.
It should be noted that it is technically possible to produce grey hydrogen by capturing the CO2 emitted during steam reforming and storing it: this is what is known as 'blue' hydrogen. However, as Luxembourg's hydrogen strategy notes, this process is not compatible with a deep decarbonisation logic, since it still relies on a fossil resource.
European electricity is currently too carbon intensive to produce hydrogen with lower carbon emissions than grey hydrogen. We must therefore give priority to decarbonising our electricity. Moreover, grey hydrogen is currently very cheap, with a cost price of about €1/kg, whereas green hydrogen costs €3-6/kg depending on the price of the electricity used, electrolysis is indeed a very energy-intensive process: it takes 50kWh to produce one kilo of hydrogen with a calorific value of 33kWh. However, with the price of gas and carbon continuing to rise, and the price of electricity expected to fall in the long term, green hydrogen could be competitive within 10 to 20 years.
The government is opposed to nuclear power and is calling for the closure of the French power station in Cattenom, which is located on the border. But isn't nuclear power an effective solution for decarbonisation?
If you look at it solely in terms of climate objectives, it is obviously an interesting technique. But in the overall analysis, we must not lose sight of the other aspects, in particular the whole aspect of safety and waste management, which still represent major risks.
For those countries that want it, nuclear fission is compatible with climate objectives. It is a controllable, non-renewable source of energy, but it is very dense in terms of energy (a 7g pellet of uranium contains as much energy as a tonne of coal) and has already proved its worth by providing France and Sweden with the most carbon-free electricity in Europe.
Luxembourg is not spared by global warming. It has reached +1.6°C in the country compared to pre-industrial levels, the Ministry of the Environment recently recalled--more than the +1.1°C recorded at global level. Why is this so?
Air temperatures on the planet's surface are not uniform due to geographical diversity. Oceans and continents, plains and mountains, ice caps and deserts all show different rates of warming. It is expected that the long-term warming of continental areas, including Luxembourg, will be greater than the warming of the oceans.
How does this global warming play out in our region?
In 50 years' time, our climate will have typical characteristics of the Mediterranean climate. In addition, extreme events will be more intense and more frequent as global warming increases.
Which extreme events are we talking about specifically?
The most impactful from a health point of view are heat waves, which lead to an increase in premature deaths. And the combination of heat waves and increased humidity levels is threatening. Even modest global warming could expose large sections of the population to unbearable heat stress.
As for rainfall, while annual variations are likely to remain small, seasonal variations will become more pronounced. This means more rain in winter--and therefore more risk of flooding--and less rain in summer, and therefore more risk of drought. In addition, the summer seasons are likely to be marked by meteorological episodes that are conducive to particularly heavy and intense rainfall on a local scale, even leading to flash floods with considerable material damage. Rarely observed phenomena in our regions, such as tornadoes--as in Bascharage in 2019--could then become more frequent.
The size of the territory means that we are limited in what we can implement. For example, the country is too small to create value chains around recycling. We need to consider this approach at the level of the Greater Region.
Is Luxembourg still on track to meet its climate targets?
It will be very difficult. The size of the territory means that we are limited in what we can implement. For example, the country is too small to create value chains around recycling. We have to consider this approach at the level of the Greater Region. We also import our energy (85% of electricity is imported, for example), but also many products, starting with food. Without compensation, it is therefore difficult to consider achieving the objectives. However, compensation measures take place outside the territory, via financing.
The financial sector, the main driver of the national economy, is an effective lever for meeting our commitments?
With compensation measures, what we cannot do in Luxembourg, we can do elsewhere. For example, by financing the reforestation of an area, which makes it possible to fix the CO2. Luxembourg also invests in wind turbines in the Baltic Sea.
In these cases, investment funds can play an important role. Luxembourg has specialised funds in this area. And the country is one of the leaders in all aspects of green finance, notably with the Luxembourg Green Exchange (LGX) on the stock exchange.
Is it conceivable that science will provide the ultimate solutions to the climate crisis?
Technology alone will not save us. A change in our way of life is essential. But many climate-friendly decisions are also beneficial for us: leaving the car in the garage and taking the bike or the bus, reducing meat consumption, trying gardening, learning to repair instead of throwing away, buying second-hand...
Moreover, historically, very few new technologies have led to a reduction in energy consumption: internal combustion cars have never been so efficient--yet demand for oil is at an all-time high, as improved engines have allowed heavier cars to be built. It is therefore very difficult to bet on technological improvement alone without also addressing its use. This is a paradox that absolutely must be resolved at a time of climate emergency."
This article was written for the published on 28 October 2021.
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This story was first published in French on . It has been translated and edited for Delano.