National statistics bureau Statec on Monday 7 October 2024, a 0.4% drop in the consumer price index (CPI) for September, with petroleum product prices down 14.9% year-on-year and the annual inflation rate falling to 1.3%. This decline marked a continuation of the downward trend in petroleum product prices, which had persisted for the second consecutive month, while the CPI recorded five consecutive months of decreases.

According to Statec, oil-derived products experienced a 4.3% drop compared to August. Diesel prices fell by 4.4%, while petrol prices dropped by 5.4%. Heating oil saw the most significant reduction, with prices down by 8.5%. In comparison to September 2023, petroleum product prices were 14.9% lower.

Seasonal factors also played a role in the index decline, particularly in relation to package holidays. Travellers paid 10.1% less for their trips compared to the previous month. Additionally, airfares decreased by 20.0% on average compared to August. However, while travel costs declined, other services saw notable increases.

Statec reported a 13.3% rise in fees for daycare centres and after-school care compared to the previous month, alongside a 2.6% increase in the prices of hotels. Price increases were also observed in the restaurant sector (up 0.3%) and for internet access (up 6.3%). The overall price of services grew by 3.7% on a year-on-year basis, though this marked a slight decrease from the 3.9% increase recorded the previous month.

In the food sector, prices rose by 0.2% from August, driven largely by higher prices for fresh fruit (up 4.4%) and fresh vegetables (up 2.3%). However, some food items experienced declines, including chocolate (down 3.5%), potatoes (down 2.5%) and fresh fish (down 2.9%). Annually, food prices were up by 1.5%.

The core annual inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, remained unchanged at 2.3%. Statec also noted that the overall index for September 2024, using 2015 as the base year (100), reached 123.30 points.

Regarding the next potential wage indexation, the six-month average of the index, computed on a base of 1 January 1948, increased from 1011.17 to 1012.12 points. The next automatic indexation of wages and benefits will occur when the value reaches 1013.46. Despite the small gap of 0.13% between the current figure and the trigger point, Statec stated that a wage indexation in October appeared unlikely. For the indexation to be activated in November and applied in December, the annual inflation rate would need to surpass 1.63% in both October and November. The next inflation forecast is scheduled for 6 November 2024.