The bureau determines these inflation rates using the national consumer price index (IPCN).

Statec , since February, prices related to petroleum have been pushing the inflation rate down due to certain base effects.

Yet, with the recent announcements of fuel price hikes earlier this month, Statec anticipates a reduced impact from these petroleum products on the annual inflation figures in August.

On the other hand, core inflation--which excludes the volatile petroleum products--consistently hovers above the 4.5% mark.

The escalating service prices, which, as of now, see an annual inflation rate of 2.9%. This increase has been influenced by two indexations in February and April 2023, as well as seasonal trends--as evident with airplane ticket prices and package tours soaring by 18.3% and 17.8% respectively from June to July.

On the flipside, after the shock of Ukraine’s invasion sent them skyrocketing, food prices have taken a slight dip of 0.1% in July, the first in nearly two years.

However, challenges lie ahead. As the El Niño phenomenon resurfaces this year, disrupting global climate and agriculture patterns, Statec forecasts a possibility for another spike in agricultural commodity prices.

The current six-month moving average of the index as of July stands at 984.78. For an automatic wage adjustment, this figure needs to climb to 988.75. Reaching this number in September hinges on August’s annual inflation rate being at least 4.07%. If August’s inflation doesn’t surpass 4.07%, the indexation might be postponed to October.

In a separate , Statec remains steadfast in its projections, anticipating inflation rates of 3.9% for the year 2023 and a drop to 2.5% in 2024.