The number of patients in intensive care could reach 26 in the most likely scenario, but up to 43 in a pessimistic scenario, according to the projections of the Covid-19 task force. (Photo: Shutterstock)

The number of patients in intensive care could reach 26 in the most likely scenario, but up to 43 in a pessimistic scenario, according to the projections of the Covid-19 task force. (Photo: Shutterstock)

The number of people hospitalised in intensive care--23 as of 9 December--has more than doubled in a fortnight. The Covid-19 task force is expecting a peak soon. But also, in a pessimistic scenario, up to 43 occupied beds in January.

Luxembourg had 23 patients in intensive care as of 9 December, according to the latest daily report from the Ministry of Health. This figure has more than doubled in a fortnight (10 people were in intensive care on Thursday 25 November).

Since the beginning of the school year, the situation had remained relatively stable in hospitals, despite a constant increase in the number of infections. This is different from last year due to the protection afforded to vaccinated people.

However, since the beginning of November, the number of infections has increased, with the inevitable consequence of an increase in hospital admissions. With 23 people in intensive care, the country is still far from the records of last spring (38) and autumn (50 people in intensive care on 13 December 2020). But the situation can change very quickly in intensive care, which will decide whether more restrictive health measures will be implemented.

In its modelling published on Friday 10 December, the Covid-19 task force of Research Luxembourg envisages a peak in intensive care hospitalisations relatively soon, with 26 beds occupied in intensive care at the beginning of January. This is at least its most likely scenario. In a more pessimistic scenario (with 10% more social interactions), the task force envisages up to 43 occupied ICU beds in the second half of January.

Vaccination protects, but stagnates

So far, the infection curve has tended to follow the pessimistic scenario: at the beginning of November, the task force envisaged in its pessimistic scenario almost 400 new infections per day in December, which is currently the case. However, the number of hospital admissions in intensive care is closer to the most likely scenario, which envisaged around 20 people in intensive care. A sign of the effectiveness of the vaccination.

In fact, according to the latest weekly report from the Ministry of Health, vaccinated people are half as likely to be contaminated as unvaccinated people. And half of the people in intensive care are not vaccinated, even though they represent only 32% of the total population.

The fact remains that the vaccination rate is stagnating in the country, despite the announced tightening of the CovidCheck regime. 78.6% of the population eligible for vaccination (over 12 years of age) received a full vaccination schedule. This is still far from the government's target of 80 to 85%, which is the best way to avoid a sharp rise in hospital admissions in intensive care.

This story was first published in French on . It has been translated and edited for Delano.