According to Statec, city gas prices will rise by 36% as a result of the end of state coverage of network costs (introduced in May 2022) and the increase in the CO2 tax. The end of the government’s contribution to network costs alone accounts for 34.5% of the increase in the price of gas. Photo: Shutterstock

According to Statec, city gas prices will rise by 36% as a result of the end of state coverage of network costs (introduced in May 2022) and the increase in the CO2 tax. The end of the government’s contribution to network costs alone accounts for 34.5% of the increase in the price of gas. Photo: Shutterstock

According to the latest analysis by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), Europe’s natural gas supply for the winter is secure, with no risk of shortages. This does not mean, however, that bills will be any lower.

The European Union requires 90% storage capacity by 1 November each year, a target that was met a few months ago. But not in Luxembourg. Or, at least, not directly, since the country has no gas storage facilities, not least because of its geology. At the same time, European countries, including Luxembourg this time, are continuing their efforts to reduce their consumption. Here, in 2023, the country consumed 5,215 GWH and must achieve a target of 4,902 GWH by 2030, in line with the ambitions of the national energy and climate plan.

The natural gas consumed in Luxembourg is therefore imported via high-pressure pipelines from Belgium and Germany. “In Luxembourg, suppliers who supply end customers are obliged to reserve 15% of the volume they have delivered on average to customers in Luxembourg over the last five years in storage facilities located in an EU member state,” pointed out economy minister  (DP) in a reply to a parliamentary question submitted by LSAP MPs and . The country shares a “common market area” with Belgium and is mainly supplied with gas by that country. “Belgium and Luxembourg are well connected to the European gas network and also benefit from deliveries from a large liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Zeebrugge,” the minister also pointed out.

In January 2025, the grand duchy consumed 946 GWH, all imported from Belgium. And while reserves in the neighbouring country were more than 90% full last November, they have fallen considerably since then. This is shown by the , which can be consulted online and lists stock levels in the EU and neighbouring countries. As of 4 February (the latest data available), it shows storage capacity at 38.40% (compared with 61% at the same time last year) and 51.3% at EU level (68.4% last year).

Storage plays an important role in stabilising prices, especially during periods of strong demand. In fact, the obligation to fill 90% of stocks before winter is also supposed to limit excessive price rises during the winter. The more stocks are filled as winter approaches, the less the market is subject to supply tensions that could push prices up. Similarly, there is less pressure on the spot market (also known as the short-term market), which helps to limit price volatility.

An increase in bills of €100 to €300 according to Statec

But storage capacity is far from the only factor influencing the price. First of all, the gas has to be transported to the country, and that comes at a price. Network operators are responsible for transporting natural gas from production sites to consumption points. Energy is transported by underground pipelines. Consumers must pay network usage charges. There are also metering charges (to measure household consumption) and connection charges (a one-off fee that covers the network operator’s costs). Next comes consumption.

Although it has fallen since the beginning of 2024, “the price of gas on European markets remains higher than it was before the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, according to the European Commission, the exceptionally high prices seen at the end of 2022 should not be repeated,” said Delles. He also pointed to the fact that imports are more diversified than at the time, and that new LNG terminals are being set up in Europe.

But that was without taking into account the rise in network costs since 1 January. As a result, “an average household with an annual gas consumption of 2,500m3 will have to pay around €300 more per year than in 2024. Compared with 2022 and 2023, an average household will have to pay around €100 more in 2025, which represents an increase of 4 to 5%,” explained the economy minister. In its latest report, published on 5 February, Statec predicted a 36% rise in city gas prices, “due to the end of the state’s contribution to network costs and the increase in the CO2 tax. The end of the government’s contribution to network costs alone accounts for 34.5% of the rise in gas prices.” The country’s statistics bureau also noted that “the only government measure still in force on the price of energy products is that on the price of electricity,” whose network costs have also been revised upwards, since they are now based not only on the energy consumed, but also on the power used.

This article was originally published in .