At the end of March, 5,555 people were on the housing fund’s waiting list for affordable housing. On 4 July, the Housing Observatory released an analysis of these would-be tenants.

The first thing we learn from the report is that there are more and more people on the waiting list: at the beginning of 2021 there were 3,883 applicants, 43% fewer than in March 2023. Says the housing ministry, this is a sign that “the exclusion of the most vulnerable households from the private housing market is worsening, due to rising prices and rents--and that the conditions for granting mortgages have become less favourable”.

Three types of household account for around three quarters of prospective tenants. In first place are single people (35.1%), followed by single-parent families (22.7%) and large families, i.e. those with two adults and three or more children (16.8%). “Single-parent families and large families are overrepresented in relation to their share of the total population of Luxembourg,” explains the Housing Observatory. Larger families also find it more difficult to find housing suited to their size, and therefore tend to stay on the waiting list for longer.

Overrepresentation of 28-35 year olds

Some 30% of applicants are aged between 36 and 45, and 25.3% are between 46 and 55. The youngest (19-27) and oldest (66+) applicants are the least numerous among tenants. “People aged between 28 and 45 are still heavily overrepresented,” the report says. Since 2021, the proportion of 28- to 35-year-olds has risen by 9.7%.

“This trend may be linked to young people’s desire to move out and to the fact that they are finding it increasingly difficult to find accommodation on the private market.” Conversely, the proportion of people 36-45 years old has fallen by 4.4% (although their numbers are increasing, they are proportionally less numerous than other age groups). “It’s possible that some people in this age group have turned to the market for affordable housing.”

Half of the prospective tenants have a weighted net disposable income of less than €1,643 per month. This is well below the poverty line of €2,177 per month, according to Statec.

Forty percent of prospective tenants spend more than 30% of their net disposable income on their current home, while 44.5% live in “unsuitable” accommodation (i.e., one where not every person aged 12+, or couple, has their own bedroom). Some 38% rent accommodation with a fixed-term contract from an association. The same household may have more than one of these characteristics.

The Housing Observatory also notes that diminishing access to housing has resulted in changing attitudes: “The proportion of prospective tenants with no preference for location has risen from 28% in 2021 to 37% in 2023.”

“It will be important to deepen these analyses and to include the dynamic evolution of the waiting list,” notes the ministry of housing.

Notably, a National Register of Affordable Housing is due to be set up, following the vote on Bill 7937. The government has also introduced a list of 13 measures worth €150m for the sector, some of which affect affordable housing.

This article in French in Paperjam. It has been translated and edited for Delano.