Instant payments and account-to-account transactions are reshaping the payments landscape, yet only a fraction of financial institutions are prepared to manage these changes, according to the World Payments Report 2025, by Capgemini Research Institute on 10 September 2024. Capgemini forecasts that instant payments will make up 22% of global non-cash transaction volumes by 2028, marking a significant development in a rapidly transforming financial ecosystem driven by innovation and digitalisation.

The report highlighted that while the payments industry has been evolving since 2004, spurred by advances in digital technologies such as peer-to-peer payments and contactless transactions, regulatory changes have also been essential in fostering innovation and improving consumer protection. According to Capgemini, the result has been a payments ecosystem that is more interconnected, efficient and secure than ever before.

Non-cash transactions

The data indicated a significant rise in non-cash transactions. In 2023, the total volume reached 1.41trn and is expected to grow to 1.65trn by 2024. By 2028, non-cash transactions are projected to nearly double, reaching 2.84trn globally. Capgemini noted that the Asia-Pacific region led the way in adopting these payment methods, with a 20% year-on-year increase in 2024, outpacing Europe (16%) and North America (6%). E-commerce was identified as a major driver of this shift, with 77% of industry executives highlighting it as a key factor accelerating the move to non-cash transactions.

A2A payments

Account-to-account (A2A) payments allow users to transfer money directly from their bank account to someone else’s, typically for services or purchases. Unlike peer-to-peer (P2P) payments, which go through third-party apps like PayPal, A2A payments are processed directly between banks. Capgemini predicts that A2A payments could disrupt traditional card systems, potentially reducing card transaction growth by 15% to 25%. Moreover, A2A payments are faster and more cost-effective because they avoid the fees of card networks. The report warns that this shift could challenge established card schemes and result in significant revenue losses for financial institutions that depend on card fees and interest charges. In Europe, the European Payments Initiative’s Wero wallet is anticipated to speed up the adoption of A2A payments, with a predicted 37% decrease in card transactions by 2027.

Instant payments

Despite the benefits of instant payments, the report found that financial institutions are struggling to keep up with the shift. While two-thirds of payment executives viewed instant payments as essential for driving non-cash transactions, concerns about fraud and liquidity have hindered progress. Currently, only 25% of banks are able to receive instant payments, and just 53% have the capability to send and receive them.

Capgemini’s analysis, based on survey responses from a variety of business and technology organisations, revealed that only 5% of banks have the high business and technology readiness necessary to become leaders in instant payment adoption. The lack of preparedness was especially notable among European banks, with only 13% demonstrating a solid technology foundation to support instant payments. This is particularly concerning given the approaching October 2025 Instant Payment Regulation deadline in the EU, which will require all banks to offer full instant payment functionality.

Jeroen Hölscher, global head of payment services at Capgemini, noted in the report that the increase in non-cash transactions signals a major shift towards instant and open payments. He emphasised that collaboration between the private and public sectors, as seen with Pix in Brazil and UPI in India, is crucial for success.

Open finance

The report also addressed the progress of open finance, a more interconnected and consumer-centric financial ecosystem, highlighting its potential as a major transformative force in the industry. The adoption of open banking under Europe’s 2018 Payment Service Directive (PSD2) has paved the way for open finance, which empowers consumers and businesses by enabling real-time data sharing between financial institutions. However, despite its promise, Capgemini found that progress remains slow due to varying regulatory frameworks and market initiatives across regions. Leading countries in the field include Australia, Brazil, India and Singapore.

Nevertheless, financial institutions face considerable challenges in fully embracing open finance. Non-standardised application programming interfaces (APIs), limited control over data use and insufficient incentives to share data with third parties were among the main hurdles identified. According to Capgemini, only 17% of banks are in advanced stages of launching or piloting open finance products, while 39% remain in the planning phase, conducting impact assessments. A further 23% of banks are hesitant to move forward, awaiting greater regulatory clarity.