It is only a matter of time before the DP must appoint a successor for Gramegna. As the budget vote gets underway, the uncertainty surrounding the name of the government's next big money man will only create uncertainty that will be detrimental to a government team that is losing momentum and that will have lost five members in three years.

Several scenarios are taking shape, but (very) few people agreed to speak other than off the record. Gramegna himself during an he has a candidate in mind he would discuss with the prime minister, Xavier Bettel.

Unlikely options include Charles Goerens, Lydie Polfer or Guy Arendt, not because of their skills but their age. Both Gramegna and DP president Corinne Cahen have suggested that the new member of the executive will be younger, with a view to the 2023 elections and a longer-term future.

So, what can we expect?

A shift within the government

One possibility is for Marc Hansen to relinquish his portfolios (public sector, digitalisation, administrative reform), in whole or in part, to take charge of the ministry of finance. Max Hahn could be a candidate to take over the functions of minister and/or minister delegate occupied by his party colleague.

This option would be easier to implement than education minister Claude Meisch moving into finance. While this would plug one whole, it would create another.

Choosing a member of parliament

Among the 11 DP deputies, André Bauler stands out. He is an economist and chairman of the finance and budget committee. His technical skills are unquestionable. It remains to be seen whether he has the support of his party, and whether he would even want to return to government.

Between 2013 and 2014, he was secretary of state for education in the newly formed government under Bettel for a few months, before retiring for health reasons.

The other MPs are probably either too old, too young (like Carole Hartmann), or have too little experience (like Frank Colabianchi).

Placing a senior civil servant

As the is finalised and soon to be voted, and 2023 is an election year, the room for political manoeuvre will be reduced for the new tenant of the Place de Clairefontaine office. This should not bother a senior civil servant or public servant lifted into this position.

Nicolas Mackel 's name is obviously being bandied about. But he has always denied wanting to immerse himself in politics. Moreover, it was the former CSV finance minister, Luc Frieden, who attracted him to Luxembourg for Finance, where he is making his mark.

Another name that keeps coming up is that of Bob Kieffer, a government advisor who became director of the treasury. He is close to Gramegna and reportedly a formidably efficient technician. Tom Théobald also has an interesting profile and specialised skills, which are currently used to develop and promote the financial centre. He is not a favourite, but certainly an outsider to keep in mind.

A woman

Luxembourg has no shortage of high-flying female financial experts.

Maureen Wiwinius is almost an ideal candidate. She has worked for the CSSF--which she has chaired since July 2019--is the advisor for financial services, financial stability and the regulatory framework of the financial centre at the ministry of finance, and has just been of Luxembourg’s insurance watchdog, the CAA.

Isabelle Goubin, former president of the CSSF, but also of the CAA, permanent secretary of the “Haut comité de la place financière” and member of the executive committee of Luxembourg for Finance, also has the necessary qualities for the position.

The same applies to Pascale Toussing, director of the inland revenue service, member of the CSSF, the CAA and other institutions.

A surprise...

Carlo Thelen, director general of the Chamber of Commerce, has been suggested as a candidate, especially since Gramegna held the director general post for 10 years before leaving the chamber for the government. But Thelen isn’t interested in the job.

Alain Kinsch could be that surprise. The former country managing partner of EY almost took up the position in 2013, when the new DP-Dei Gréng-LSAP coalition asked him to do so. He already had the right profile and had largely advised the liberal camp during the negotiations of the coalition agreement.

It remains to be seen whether he will not prefer to take care of his current mandates and remain an influential man in the shadows, where one can sometimes be more influential than a minister.