The study was conducted in collaboration with the socioeconomic research institute Liser and the general inspectorate of social security, and is meant to provide jobseekers with better support. It found that jobseekers coming from a long-term job are at greater risk of experiencing long-term unemployment. This could be due to the automation or digitalisation of certain processes or a lack of adaptability in terms of working conditions and salaries.

Here are three main findings.

Downward trend in number of long-term unemployed

In September 2022, 6,500 people had been unemployed and registered with Luxembourg’s employment agency Adem for 12 months or longer. Since January 2021, this number has been decreasing. The study found that the current labour shortages allow those who have been unemployed for a long time to benefit from market conditions.

One out of six jobseekers will be faced with long-term unemployment

Despite the favourable labour market situation, a jobseeker who has just registered with Adem has a 16% chance of being unemployed 12 months later, according to the study.

Disabled jobseekers or those with reduced work capacity more frequently registered with Adem for long-term unemployment

The study also found that 35% of people who were registered as long-term unemployed with Adem had a specific status: reduced work capacity (following , meaning they have been declared unfit to perform their previous job for health reasons) and/or disability.

84% of people with reduced work capacity and 77% of disabled employees registered with Adem were more often faced with long-term unemployment compared to jobseekers without a specific status (37%).