Michel-Edouard Ruben is an economist at Foundation Idea Romain Gamba

Michel-Edouard Ruben is an economist at Foundation Idea Romain Gamba

Teleworking questions and risks will continue to cause headaches into 2023. Fondation Idea economist Michel-Edouard Ruben weighs in.

It is an elementary rule of caution in economics to answer "I don't know" when you are asked what the future will hold for the simple, good and relevant reason that the socio-economic future never looks how it usually looked.

This impossibility of predicting the future is particularly true with regard to the evolution of the labor market, which is an area where forecasting errors are common: neither the technological unemployment evoked by John Maynard Keynes in 1930 ("our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour"), nor the approaching end of work proclaimed by Jeremy Rifkin in The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era in 1995, nor the large-scale uberisation (i.e., the imminent end of wage labour and the massification of self-employment) regularly announced between 2015 and 2019 had venue. Work has the annoying habit of doing as it pleases.

This warning given, it nevertheless seems to me that it is not taking too much of a risk to affirm that in 2023, the metamorphosis of the wage-earning society represented by teleworking should continue to animate the debates and cause serious headaches (amongst others) for company directors, human resources departments, the ministry of finance, employees, lawyers specialising in labour law and economists.

If this should be so, it is because, obviously, the shock of the massification of telework that has taken place since the health crisis is a persistent shock but also because many structural questions posed by this new way to work are still without definitive answers (or not really discussed):

• What will be the impact of teleworking on investment in office property?

• What is the cost of teleworking for the retail and catering sectors in a country where almost half of the employees live abroad?

• Is there a need to supplement labor law with telework law?

• Does the optimal level of telework depend on the employees' telework offer? Is it above all a function of companies' demand for teleworking given their method of organization? or is it the result of socio-fiscal constraints imposed by the importance of cross-border work?

• Can teleworking be an objective ally in transforming part-time into full-time work?

• Does telework have a positive impact on productivity? and if so, does this imply that an employee who uses telework should, on average, experience higher increases than an employee who comes to the office every day?

• With the transformation from residential to commercial caused by telework and the possible gains for some/losses for others that result from it, should labor taxation be supplemented by taxation of telework?

• Doesn't the massification of telework open the door to tele-migration (i.e., the offshoring of skilled service jobs)?

• Etc.