Global waste production is rising rapidly—and for some investors, that represents an opportunity rather than just an environmental crisis.

“The world is grappling with a rapidly escalating waste crisis that shows no signs of slowing down,” said Kai Curry-Lindahl, fund manager and active recycling & ESG expert at Active Niche Funds, speaking at the EFPA Finance Forum 2026 in Luxembourg on 12 March.

Why recycling is the only waste solution that pays

Drawing on fifteen years of experience as both a scientist and finance professional, he noted that global waste production currently stands at roughly 2 billion tonnes per year and is projected to nearly double by 2050, according to the World Bank’s What a Waste 2.0 report.

Yet he views this environmental crisis through a pragmatic investment lens. “That’s why recycling is an opportunity,” he said.  

According to the Cornell University-educated PM, society ultimately has four ways to deal with waste: collecting and burning it is a cost; putting it in landfills is a cost; leaving it as uncontrolled pollution is a massive “cost to society”; and recycling it is the only option that generates value.

This distinction transforms recycling from an environmental obligation into a genuine investment opportunity.

Where investors find value in recycling

He defines the recycling value chain broadly, stretching from waste collection companies (“the garbage trucks”) to industrial manufacturers—such as steel producers—that use recycled materials as primary inputs. However, the Lausanne-based fund manager is selective about where he allocates capital, prioritising segments with “higher margins and higher barriers to entry”.

This typically means investing in collection or the final transformation into new goods, where companies often hold valuable intellectual property (IP). In contrast, he avoids the middle stage of separation, noting that “anyone with a bit of land can lease a sorting machine and start processing scrap,” leading to low margins and a lack of competitive advantage.

The recycling specialist also highlighted the varying potential of different materials. While metals are “indefinitely recyclable", mechanical plastic recycling is typically limited to around three cycles before the material degrades and becomes unusable. He also highlighted surging demand for copper, driven by the global energy transition, as a key investment theme.

The case for pure-play recycling investments

His investment philosophy draws a strict distinction between companies that directly benefit from a theme and those that merely contribute to it.

He manages a long-only global equity fund, Active Recycling, classified as Article 9 under the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR). He is critical of thematic funds that include household names like Microsoft or Coca-Cola. While these companies may use recycled materials, their revenues—and ultimately their share prices—are driven by software or soda sales, not recycling.

He warns that when investors see these blue-chip stocks in a recycling fund, they feel “misled” and develop a “negative bias” toward the sector. To ensure “purity of impact,” Curry-Lindahl focuses on companies whose stock performance is directly driven by recycling-related activity.

Policy helps, but fundamentals still rule

While regulatory frameworks, such as the EU’s circular economy action plan and the €5.1bn invested in 153 projects by the European Investment Bank, provide a welcome “tailwind,” Curry-Lindahl remains cautious. He performs a rigorous “bottom-up” analysis, seeking companies with growing revenues, manageable debt levels, strong margins and solid free cash flow while avoiding companies that are “too dependent” on government subsidies.

He concludes that recycling is a “unique investment opportunity” because it is not sentiment-driven like AI or robotics. Instead, it is a “mega trend” with a 10- to 20-year horizon, capable of serving as the defensive side of the portfolio because waste production, unfortunately, is a guaranteed growth market.