The current government coalition would lose its majority, but hold exactly half of the Chamber of Deputies, if the survey results held up.

The poll was released by the Luxemburger Wort, the country’s largest newspaper, and RTL, the main broadcaster, on Tuesday evening.

Support for the mildly populist ADR rose from 8.6% at the October 2018 elections to 10.4% in the November 2019 poll. Support for the CSV, Luxembourg’s largest party, was up from 28.9% to 30.1%, while support for the Green party (Déi Gréng) increased from 15.1% to 15.9% and the Left party (Déi Lénk) went from 5% to 5.5%.

Support for the DP declined from 17.5% to 16.6% and support for the LSAP was down from 16.8% to 15%. The Pirate party (Piraten) also lost support: voter intention fell from 6.6% of the October 2018 vote to 5.4% in the November 2019 survey.

The pollsters projected that would result in the ADR gaining 2 parliamentary seats and the Greens would be up 1 (out of 60 in the chamber). The CSV, DP and LSAP would hypothetically each lose 1 MP. Under this scenario, the governing DP-LSAP-Green coalition would drop from 31 to 30 MPs.

The survey was commissioned by the Luxemburger Wort and RTL and conducted by the polling firm TNS Ilres. The pollster asked a representative sample of 1,859 Luxembourg voters (1,331 by telephone and 528 online) their opinions “if the election were held this Sunday” between 14 and 23 November.