A strict limitation of gatherings, coupled with diligent testing and encouraging work from home arrangements, could help break the wave, according to researchers Shutterstock

A strict limitation of gatherings, coupled with diligent testing and encouraging work from home arrangements, could help break the wave, according to researchers Shutterstock

Is the second wave going to be worse than the first? This week the covid-19 task force of Research Luxembourg published a new study on the evolution of the pandemic in the grand duchy. With unprecedented projections for the country, which had never exceeded 200 additional cases per day during the first wave that peaked on 1 April.

Based on the trend observed up to 18 July, with a Sars-CoV-2 virus reproduction rate greater than 1--indicating that an infected person infects more than one person--the team of researchers believes that “the total number of cases in Luxembourg may surpass the mark of 8,000 cases by 29 July if current trends persist”.

That means that the bar of 200 new daily cases could be surpassed as early as this week, then that of 400 additional daily cases by the end of July. “These increases will lead to more hospital stays due to covid-19 which have themselves also been steadily increasing since the beginning of July.”

Limited effect of large-scale testing

Stopping short the government’s attempts at explanations, the researchers put it in clear terms: “Although the large-scale testing is contributing towards the detection of new positive cases, there has been a general trend for more positive tests in relation to the overall number of tests performed.”

In short, the virus is actively circulating.

Uncertain evolution of the epidemic

Scientists admit that it is difficult to predict how to control the second wave of virus spread.

“Given the range of doubling times of 8 to 13.2 days from the presented analyses, it remains unclear whether the recent rise in cases is restricted to clusters (which evidence indicates) or whether broader community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is occurring.”

An uncertainty reinforced by the trend for the week of July 11 to 18 is “inconsistent” with the trend observed since June 15. In any case, "if clusters are detected, testing capacity should be rapidly mobilized to perform cluster testing around these”.

According to the researchers' projections, the coming peak could be capped by coupling a manual tracing capacity of 120 contacts per day, an 80% decrease in private gatherings and the encouragement of teleworking from July 20.

The study was written ahead of the government's announcement of new measures on Sunday.

This article originally appeared in French on Paperjam and has been translated and edited by Delano.