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Since early October, more countries have introduced covid-19 restrictions than have lifted them, a trend not seen since April. That could slow economic growth in the fourth quarter, stated the investment bank UBS. Pictured: The sign on a business closed during the coronavirus lockdown in Madrid. Photo credit: Anastasiia Chepinska/Unsplash 

The net number of countries imposing mobility restrictions and the typical strictness of those rules have both shifted noticeably upwards since the end of September, per the most recent “Global Mobility Restrictions Tracker” published by UBS.

“The median level of restrictiveness” had declined by more than half between April and July, to a level that had held more or less steady over the summer. That has changed with cooler weather in the northern hemisphere. UBS reported that since the beginning of October:

“The number of countries taking measures has been increasing and, last week, 13 out of 43 economies increased restrictions, whereas only 3 lowered them (India, Indonesia, Vietnam)--that’s the highest ‘net’ number of increases since April.”

UBS forecast the potential economic impact of stepping up coronavirus-fighting measures and said the costs are steep. The bank warned that “restrictions creeping higher is the single biggest near term risk to the outlook.” According to UBS:

“For every 1 [percent] increase on our restrictiveness scale, the level of GDP declines 6 [percentage points] if maintained for an entire quarter. So if countries start to impose ‘circuit breaker’ lockdowns that last just several weeks, that may already be enough to turn a positive Q4 growth rate negative.”

The UBS tracker covers 42 countries, including Belgium, France and Germany (but not Luxembourg), and the territory of Hong Kong. Analysts at the bank have been following government restrictions implemented since 10 March, such as cross-border and domestic travel limitations, school closures, restaurant and bar closures, restrictions on mass gatherings, social distancing rules and face mask requirements.

The report covered the week ending 16 October and was published on 19 October, shortly before the Irish government said the country would re-enter a stricter lockdown.