The current coalition government would easily survive an election if it were held this Sunday, a new opinion poll published on Wednesday has shown. The poll, conducted on behalf of RTL and the Wort between 8 and 24 June, indicate strong support in particular for Xavier Bettel’s Democratic Party, which would see its share of the national vote rise to 20.6%, leading to a gain of three more seats in parliament. A total of 1,118 eligible voters were surveyed in all four national election constituencies for the poll.

And while Déi Gréng would lose one seat as a result of only winning 13.7% of the vote (down from the 15.10% it won in the October 2018 elections), the DP’s other coalition partner, the LSAP, would retain its 10 seats allowing the three-party government to stay in power, increasing its majority in the 60-seat chamber of deputies to 33.

The main opposition CSV, while still the most popular single party with 27.5% of the vote, would lose two seats and fall below the 20 seat mark for the first time since the 1999 election, which was also the last time the DP also had as many as 15 seats.

Percentage of vote in June’s poll compared to the election in October 2018

Theoretically, if the results were transposed to an actual election, the DP and CSV could form a coalition as they did in 1999. But in reality Bettel would not only be hypocritical after saying in 2018 that the CSV were not an option for coalition because they were shedding votes, but he would also be accused of disloyalty to the Greens, whose unexpectedly good result in 2018 (when they gained 3 seats) saved the coalition’s majority.

Of the fringe parties currently in parliament, the far left Déi Lénk spring a surprise by picking up a third seat in the TNS Ilres poll. The Pirate Party, which entered parliament for the first time in 2018, would lose one of its two seats, while the national conservative ADR would retain four seats.

The result represents a huge swing in favour of the government since the last TNS Ilres Sondesfro poll in December 2019, which indicated the coalition losing its working majority with just 30 seats. In that poll the ADR was the big winner, gaining 2 seats, while the Greens would also have won an extra seat. But the big three traditional parties all would have lost one seat.

Crisis control

Xavier Bettel’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has probably played a big role in the increased popularity of his party. He has been seen as a steady but strong hand who reacted early and decisively to what was an unprecedented crisis, even if some critics say the lockdown was called too late. The quick procurement of personal protective equipment for front-line health workers, and later for the general public, the setting up of advanced medical centres and the introduction of nationwide testing have all been applauded. There have also been reprimands from the media and opposition about a lack of transparency regarding the science the government was following in taking its decisions.

For the LSAP the poll indicates a halt to the alarming decline in its popularity, even in its southern industrial strongholds, in national and local elections. That can probably be attributed to the manner in which health minister Paulette Lenert handled being suddenly thrust into the spotlight--she had only been in the job for two weeks before the grand duchy recorded its first case of coronavirus. Foreign minister Jean Asselborn continues to be hugely popular and neither the departure of Étienne Schneider from the economy ministry, nor severe criticism of employment minister and deputy prime minister Dan Kersch in April seems to have damaged the party, for now.

The fortunes of Déi Gréng continue the party’s rollercoaster ride of popularity with the electorate as critics say the party has abandoned many of its green principals. The Pirates’ honeymoon period seems to have come to an end, and internal strife may also have taken its toll. Déi Lénk on the other hand, had been knocking at the door of a third seat in 2018.

The saying that a week is a long time in politics has never been truer than during a crisis, and the government appears to have benefitted from sound policy and good fortune. The CSV, on the other hand, has been unable to find too many chinks in the coalition’s armour without making it looks as though they are not showing solidarity with the government in a time of national emergency. Now it is up to the coalition to continue to show its mettle as the grand duchy, hopefully, emerges into a post-covid world.