In 2019, experts estimated the global sports betting market to be worth between €500bn and €1,000bn, a large bracket due to the unknown size of the illegal market. And even covid-19 hasn’t stopped the phenomenon, even though most competitions were on hold for months during the pandemic. In France, for example, numbers for the first quarter of 2020 indicate that for the first time more than €2bn were bet on sports matches during this time.

This year could be a record breaker because of the UEFA European Championship that started on 11 June. Big sporting events galvanise fans and betters. During the 2018 World Cup, the creation of accounts with lottery operator Française des Jeux was up 25%, with €400m placed on the matches in Russia alone.

For the Euro 2020, H2 Gambling Capital, a leading data consulting firm for the global gaming industry, expects bets worth €8bn being placed.

Is there the same kind of appetite for betting in Luxembourg? “You always feel a significant increase when it comes to a big tournament like this. As also happens when the final phase of an event like the Champions League is looming on the horizon,” says Xavier Feller, head of marketing and communication at the Loterie nationale.

But in terms of numbers, that doesn't mean much, quite simply because sports betting is not a big product for the national lottery. Oddset, the German lottery’s sports betting programme that it offers, is only available in about twenty physical outlets across the country. In an era of online proliferation of betting sites, this lack of internet presence is crippling potential business.

1% of turnover

Sports betting represented only €1.1m of the national lottery’s €111m turnover in 2020, less than 1%. To compare, sports bets make up around 20% of business at Française des Jeux via its dedicated platform Parions Sport.

The potential is interesting for the Loterie nationale, who has an interest in establishing a sports betting platform. This “would be done in collaboration with a partner, as always in Luxembourg given the size of the country,” says Feller. This partner could already be present on the market--the Loterie teamed up France’s PMU on horse racing--or only deliver the technology.

“Everything will depend on the model we choose. There are a number of options open to us, but no decision has yet been made on this level. If not, we will have to have a responsible offer and work with certified partners,” Feller says.

The arrival of such a sports betting site is expected “in the medium term, within five years at most,” says Feller. What seems certain, however, is the positioning it should have. “We have to arrive in this market with a good enough offer to interest the regulars,” he says.

A “cheap” product is not an option as the Loterie nationale will have to compete with established players such as Bwin, Unibet, Betclic who broadcast into Luxembourg without being allowed to do so. By law, the only market player authorized to sell gambling and betting tickets in Luxembourg is the Loterie nationale.

The challenge will be to establish a monopoly and exposure for the national platform when it becomes available. French-speaking Switzerland, for example, blocks these illegal sites. “This is an area that is the responsibility of the legislator, not the lottery. We therefore have no comment to make at this level,” says Feller.

This story was first published in French on Paperjam. It has been translated and edited for Delano.