Pierre Maes is one of the most renowned specialists in sports rights on this side of the Atlantic. He was just interviewed on the subject by the New York Times... This former Canal+ employee, now an independent consultant in the field of sports content acquisition (notably for Telenet, in Belgium), has written a book published in 2019 titled "Le Business des droits TV du soccer". The book was subtitled: "Investigation into an explosive bubble". It seems that the explosion has now taken place. 

When we see what is happening with the TV rights of French football, where the Ligue 1 clubs will receive a total of €624m per year instead of the €1.153bn that should have been paid initially, but also the (smaller) decreases observed in England, Italy or Germany with regard to their national rights, one wonders if the famous TV rights bubble of football has not burst...

Pierre Maes: In France, we have clearly had this explosion, with the 'Mediapro scenario' (named after the Chinese-Spanish company that bought the majority of the L1 rights for an annual check of €784m, before throwing in the towel shortly after the start of the championship, editor's note). But in the other four big countries of the Big Five (England, Italy, Germany and Spain), for me, it has not yet really exploded. During the recent renewals of the different contracts, these leagues have managed to maintain the amounts they had before or have registered decreases, which are certainly significant, but which cannot be called an explosion. However, in my opinion, we are on a path where this may accelerate...

I consider the recent renewal of the English Premier League rights at the same rate as before to be a miracle. A renewal made without a tender, which shows that the English league had no confidence in the dynamism of the market. It is very surprising that Sky Sports, which has to pay 80% of the more than 1.5bn pounds annually, did not take advantage of its monopoly position...

And what is the situation in other countries?

In Italy, the figures have decreased by 10 or 15%. In Germany, by 5%. This last figure may not seem very significant, but if you put it in perspective with the +85% that marked the previous call for tenders, you see how impressive the difference in dynamics is.

And in Spain?

The Spaniards will soon put their rights for the period from 2022 to 2025 on the market. And they are worried about Telefonica/Movistar taking advantage of its quasi-monopoly situation. The reason for the general decline in the Big Five is that competition no longer really exists, as one operator seems to dominate the market every time. But this competition is the only factor that makes the value of these rights rise...

Nevertheless, a few days ago in France, Amazon reshuffled the cards by taking over, for the next three years, 80% of League 1 matches. This is quite a surprise when we know that until then, the American operator was only involved in one-off sports rights deals, like the last French Open (where it had acquired the matches of a single court as well as the broadcasting of all the "night sessions"). For you, the acquisition of L1 by Amazon, is it just an opportunity, or a change of strategy in the longer term for this platform?

No, it's not a change in strategy. What they have done is an opportunistic and rational purchase of a premium product. Just as they did in the past in the Premier League by specifically buying league days during the Christmas period, including the famous Boxing Day, or by buying one Champions League night per day in Italy or Germany. The only difference here is that they paid more. The €250m they will pay annually becomes their biggest purchase in terms of sports rights on our continent. But Amazon did it very smartly, with a good knowledge of the local market, which can be surprising for a global player like them.

I am often asked if Amazon could be interested in the global rights of the mighty English soccer. My answer is always the same: no. Its objective is not to create a pay-TV. Its stated goal is to attract and retain people to Prime, to show them how advantageous this Prime formula is and how it is full of hidden treasures. And the TV rights acquired and broadcast on Prime Video are there for that.

If you look at it from the side of the French vendor, the Ligue de Football Professionnel (LFP), you might think that the calculation is weird, or even that it's a real poker move. Because by preferring Amazon to its historical partner, namely Canal+, the LFP seems to have upset the latter...

It looks like a stab in the back, or an arm of honour to its main partner. It's a real risk. Because in the end, they sold back to Amazon what Mediapro had bought for three times the price! With the withdrawal of Mediapro and the arrival of Amazon, the French rights have been divided by two. With the threat of being divided by four, in the future...

Because Canal+ has taken it very badly and will not come back?

No. Canal+ has announced that it will not broadcast L1 this year, but there is nothing definitive in terms of the future. Canal+ has an industrial logic. And getting the best of L1 is one of the important products for them. So, during the next call for tenders, they will do everything to get the lots that interest them. But at the same time, when making their offer, they will take into account their experience in the market...

And do you see Amazon trying the same kind of move in other markets?

If they can acquire rights...again at a third of the price, they probably won't mind [smile].

We've heard a lot about the arrival of the Gafa (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon) in this sports rights market. But except for a small presence of Amazon, it has been mostly smoke and mirrors...

Yes, we can say that. It's an argument that was mostly used by leagues and clubs to scare operators. Like: 'Be careful, if you don't put in more money, you'll lose your rights because Facebook is coming...' Which didn't happen. Well, maybe all this is only temporary, since the Gafa strategy is not always very clear. They don't communicate much, much less than a TV channel...

At the beginning of this interview, we talked about the recent corrections in the value of TV rights in the major leagues. Will these necessarily have repercussions on the clubs' finances?

For me, what is happening today in France will also happen in the other major leagues. That means a drop in TV rights that I estimate at around 50%. The clubs will have to learn to live with 50% less TV rights, as the French have to do today. Which is not that much of a problem. As long as they can live by paying their players less. And where the latter can play with less money. The concern is more about moving from the first stage to the second stage, where you have a smaller budget. If you don't anticipate this, you risk bankruptcy.

What makes you predict this crushing of TV rights in England, in Germany...?

Because, as I said, in most of these countries there is now a monopoly. But also because these operators realise that buying these very expensive rights is not a good strategy. That it does not allow for a return on investment.

Finally, there is a very important element that we have not yet addressed: piracy! It is very difficult to sell a subscription when you can access the same content for free.

But the quality of some streaming still sometimes causes problems. Afterwards, it is true that we are witnessing the emergence of IPTV...

IPTV is a new form, which did not exist in music or fiction, that of piracy... paying. And the quality is very good indeed. After, think again, the streaming can now be of excellent quality, with access to HD.

We consider today the TV rights of football as being at their 'Napster moment'. Napster being, as a reminder, a forerunner in music piracy that happened a good twenty years ago. We talk about 'Napster moment' because piracy is now becoming widespread and of good quality. And this causes panic.

It's the technology that explains these 20 years of delay on music. As much as you could wait five minutes to download a song in 2000, a sports broadcast requires a much larger bandwidth. And it is only today that this bandwidth is sufficient to allow a good quality broadcast.

But football is still an interesting product for television, at a time when audiovisual programmes are consumed "on demand". It has a very unifying effect. Everyone comes together at the same time to experience an event...

In Europe, it is by far, with a few rare exceptions, the number one sport. This makes it phenomenally attractive. Its concern is the multiplication of competitions. This means that only the flagship products retain this attractiveness. In general, these are the national championships, the Champions League, and perhaps even the English Premier League. Everything else is now second best. But these products are still very strong and can help a pay-TV channel to recruit and retain subscribers.

In the future, we will see a growing gap between these premium products--these 'properties' as they are called in the business--and the second choice. Between the big competitions and the smaller ones. But also between football and other sports. Because, despite the excessive media coverage, football is still growing in popularity.

This article was originally written in French for Paperjam and has been translated and edited for Delano.