Robert Harmsen says the Luxembourg government will be able to work with any administration, irrespective of whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins Tuesday's US presidential election. University of Luxembourg

Robert Harmsen says the Luxembourg government will be able to work with any administration, irrespective of whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins Tuesday's US presidential election. University of Luxembourg

Joe Biden is well ahead of Donald Trump in the polls, as was the case for Hillary Clinton four years ago. Can we envisage another surprise victory for Donald Trump?

Robert Harmsen: Yes, it is about the same situation as it was four years ago: it is almost certain that Biden will win the popular vote. And he even has an advantage in a majority of the famous swing states, as in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia or Arizona. But it’s still tight. And Trump still has a chance of winning the electoral college.

The difference this time is the extraordinary number of postal votes in advance, which exceeded 80 million on Thursday, which limits the effects of surprise.

What information do we have about these early votes? Has the counting started for these votes?

The electoral system is not run at the national level, but by the federal states. So, in Florida, the votes are counted and the final results are close: it’s very close, with 1% to 2% of the vote for Biden--which remains within the margin of statistical error. But, for example, it is forbidden to do early counting in Pennsylvania.

And we must also take into account the fact that it is mainly the Democrats who vote early.

Donald Trump has been ambiguous on whether he would accept his opponent’s victory. What can we expect?

If Trump loses, he will almost certainly challenge the results. His whole strategy is to delegitimise postal votes. There is no basis for that, but we can expect litigation on that, which will continue after the election.

If Biden’s victory is by a wide margin, Trump will have no support from the Republican Party. But if the vote is close, the situation could be really toxic, as in 2000 when Al Gore challenged George Bush’s victory. Finally, the Supreme Court had to decide, in a climate that, in retrospect, was much more civil.

What could be the Supreme Court’s decision?

The Supreme Court will probably remain cautious and adopt an institutionalist line, not by pronouncing itself directly, but by referring to the decision of the states.

Who benefits from the electoral college system?

Right now, it gives the Republicans an advantage because the vote of a resident of a small state--generally more conservative--is worth more than that of a big one. The vote is more important in Wyoming than in California. It’s the same problem for the Senate.

Is there any chance of a reform of the system?

There have been lot of academic discussions, but very little chance of that happening. The tradition is too entrenched at the federal level.

A change is more likely at the state level. The “winner takes all” principle does not exist in states like Nebraska or Maine. But in the end, there is little chance that this will be extended to other states.

The turnout was only 50% in the last presidential elections. Can we expect more turnout this year?

It will be much higher for American standards. We already have had a first glimpse of this with mail-in voting. Although the pandemic has certainly exacerbated this phenomenon.

What would an election victory for Joe Biden change in terms of international diplomacy?

Biden would re-engage the United States in multilateralism and in a better relationship with its allies in Europe and Asia.

And he’s a traditional Atlanticist. He would support Nato again. Although the Atlantic relationship has existed since the second world war, it must now be seen in a broader multilateral context.

What if Trump lands a second mandate?

With Trump, the risk is that of an even greater erosion of Nato support. But, above all, it may still be as unpredictable.

But, whether it’s Biden or Trump, the long-term evolution will not change on some aspects. This is the case for China: the policy will be firmer and more restrictive.

What are the consequences for Luxembourg?

Luxembourg would be better served by Biden’s re-engagement policy. But the government will be able to work with any administration, whether it’s Trump or Biden. In fact, there have been no specific problems in the past four years.

This article has been translated from the original French published by Paperjam