Coronavirus cases could increase to as many as 370 new infections per day by December if the virus continues spreading at the current pace, a group of researchers from Luxembourg said in a report published on Monday.
“The developments show that social distancing and hygiene measures are not as effective or not followed as needed to mitigate the second wave,” the report said. Luxembourg over the past week has seen 1,280 virus infections added to its tally.
The speed at which the virus is spreading “may indicate a critical epidemic state that may further aggravate,” the report said, with the researchers concluding there was evidence of exponential growth of the virus.
The reproductive rate on Monday was at 1.2, meaning that one person infects 1.2 people on average. Making the situation more complicated, the virus spread was diffuse in society, the researchers said, rather than being concentrated in any one particular group, which would be easier to isolate.
The number of active infections stands at 2,404, above the peak of 1,959 seen during the first wave of infections at the start of April but the government under prime minister Xavier Bettel on Saturday said it would not take any further virus measures for the time being.
“More awareness and/or measures that limit physical interactions might be needed to prevent significant increases of cases and deaths,” the report said.
The Covid-19 task force of the Research Luxembourg group--a team of researchers from the country’s public research institutions--delivered its latest report to the government on 16 October prior to the cabinet meeting on the 17th.