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No-deal Brexit scenario issued by Dominic Raab, UK Brexit minister.Photo: Reuters/Archives 

The UK’s Brexit minister Dominic Raab has said that he is confident that a deal will be reached but, nevertheless, on 23 August 2018 he issued a set of 25 documents (up to 80 in total are expected in the coming weeks) outlining what is likely change if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal.  

An article on Reuters quotes Raab as saying, “We have a duty, as a responsible government, to plan for every eventuality. …To do this, we need to have a sensible, responsible and realistic conversation about what a no deal situation really means in practice.” 

The BBC notes the key elements revealed in the 25 papers as: 

  • “The cost of card payments between the UK and EU will "likely increase" and won't be covered by a ban on surcharges
  • Businesses trading with the EU should start planning for new customs checks, and might have to pay for new software or logistical help
  • Britons living elsewhere in Europe could lose access to UK banking and pension services without EU action
  • UK organic food producers could face new hurdles to exporting to the EU
  • Pharmaceutical companies have been told to stockpile an extra six weeks' worth of medicine to ensure a "seamless" supply
  • The UK would continue to accept new medicines that have been tested in the EU
  • Low-value parcels from the EU would no longer be eligible for VAT relief
  • New picture warnings will be needed for cigarette packets as the EU owns the copyright to the current ones.”

None of this can be reassuring for UK companies that export to the EU, especially since Liam Fox, the UK’s international trade secretary, told The Sunday Times on 5 August that a no-deal scenario was the most likely outcome.

An additional worry must be the fact the government has approved a budget for the recruitment of 9,000 more civils servants in order to cope with Brexit. This news came the same day as Raab issued his guidelines on what to do if there is no deal before next March.